Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.644817 5.437720 6.313613 7.351347 8.545624 9.875304 11.466228
2025-09-21 3.391633 4.450975 5.746935 7.441525 9.590685 12.216546 15.658153
2025-09-28 2.595106 3.750606 5.290337 7.474702 10.473223 14.421045 19.983900
2025-10-05 2.259420 3.539412 5.370232 8.147087 12.211470 17.892849 26.372279
2025-10-12 1.909433 3.215969 5.206862 8.410582 13.371044 20.675309 32.130863
2025-10-19 1.644949 2.958142 5.076304 8.669428 14.516316 23.527616 38.283694
2025-10-26 1.396842 2.671641 4.840202 8.703369 15.284088 25.858265 43.866223
2025-11-02 1.152429 2.339961 4.466430 8.436467 15.500072 27.306189 48.166759
2025-11-09 0.937163 2.017106 4.049591 8.019481 15.383106 28.160246 51.536913
2025-11-16 0.797388 1.811706 3.810447 7.879607 15.719307 29.791986 56.360613
2025-11-23 0.689096 1.648646 3.623790 7.805305 16.153456 31.620844 61.687351
2025-11-30 0.637121 1.596045 3.647733 8.143679 17.404172 35.042458 70.209442
2025-12-07 0.563615 1.483656 3.535530 8.200395 18.132474 37.610029 77.494356
2025-12-14 0.497645 1.376209 3.417726 8.230254 18.814607 40.170062 85.047446
2025-12-21 0.439654 1.276277 3.300096 8.242219 19.458649 42.718579 92.829881
2025-12-28 0.432122 1.305069 3.486884 8.969010 21.729757 48.780276 108.228332
2026-01-04 0.399230 1.258892 3.485058 9.253734 23.051957 52.999016 120.225927
2026-01-11 0.369533 1.215376 3.482552 9.535360 24.397767 57.391984 132.980048
2026-01-18 0.331916 1.140604 3.387048 9.572014 25.173651 60.619871 143.527435
2026-01-25 0.285816 1.029461 3.175487 9.280294 25.124496 62.009570 150.181093
2026-02-01 0.240383 0.909230 2.917114 8.824599 24.610948 62.287196 154.367876
2026-02-08 0.211230 0.835553 2.778390 8.671709 24.840644 64.302694 162.681820
2026-02-15 0.187877 0.776111 2.671180 8.590487 25.244693 66.765629 172.246674